In 2015, he said, a study completed in cooperation with the ...

Prompt

In 2015, he said, a study completed in cooperation with the USAID had confirmed presence of 10,159 TCF Shale gas and 2,323 billion of stock tank barrels Shale oil in place resources. After identification of the deposits, a task had been given to Oil and Gas Development Company Limited and Pakistan Petroleum Limited to undertake pilot project(s) in potential areas to determine the cost of extracting Shale gas and oil, which could not be launched to date. The study covered lower and middle Indus Basin, which geographically spreads over Sindh, southern parts of Punjab and eastern parts of Balochistan. Total area under the study was 271,700km, which is 33 percent of the total sedimentary area of the country. During the study, a detailed analysis of 124 wells was carried out, including laboratory analysis on Shale cores and cuttings in the United States. Objectives of the study were to validate Shale gas resource estimate, initial findings, assess availability of required technology and infrastructure for Shale gas operations and formulate guidelines for the Shale gas policy. He said a shale gas study initiated in January 2014 with the support of USAID had been completed. It proved that Pakistan had 10,159 TCF of shale gas resource and 2,323bn barrels of shale oil. He said the findings were reached when recoverable data of 1,611 wells were collected and shale formation of 1,312 wells through drill was examined. The study covered lower and middle Indus Basin, geographically spread over Sindh, southern Punjab and eastern Balochistan. He said 70 per cent of wells data were used to develop the study. The minister said the samples were sent to New Tech Laboratory in Houston to verify shale gas and oil resource in place. The study confirmed that Pakistan had the potential of shale gas and oil which was more than expectations. To authenticate Shale Gas Resources in the country, Shale Gas Study with financial support from USAID was initiated in January 2014. The objectives of the study were to (i) validate Shale Gas Resource estimate of USEIA, (ii) assess availability of required technology & infrastructure for Shale Gas operations and (iii) formulate guidelines for Shale Gas Policy. The study has been completed in November 2015 with a total cost of US $ 2.2 MM. The study covered Lower & Middle Indus basin which geographically spread over Sind and southern part of Punjab & eastern part of Baluchistan province. Total area under the study was 271,700 km2, which is 33% of total sedimentary area of Pakistan. Under the said work program, detailed analysis of One Hundred Twenty Four (124) wells were carried out including laboratory analysis on Shale Cores and Cuttings in USA. The study has confirmed presence of substantial Shale Gas and Shale Oil as under: In Place Resource: · Free Gas (TCF) 3,778 · Adsorbed Gas (TCF) 6,381 · Total Gas (TCF) 10,159 · Oil (BSTB) 2,323. You are a highly incisive petroleum systems modeler, geophysicist/rock physicist, reservoir engineer, petroleum geochemist, geostatistician and applied mathematician. Relying on the USAID study alone for the implied rich diversity of deductions, consequences, conclusions, implications, patterns, paradoxes, contradictions: Estimate and solve for the level and probability of recoverable easily extractable commercially viable/producible shallow conventional gas reserves in Sindh, and all of its zones such as the Kirthar and the Middle Indus Basin...etc and then by extension, that of the Bhit and Badhra gas fields as was owned by ENI Pakistan, as a location of the world, purely geologically, geochemically, geophysically utilizing the absolute frontier of all optimal disciplines provable to yield the most decontaminated and incisive solution for this inverse problem. Strictly exclude all hitherto discoveries and all hitherto studies and all hitherto public reporting on this. Analyze purely geologically, geochemically, geophysically. Analyze purely the rocks. Strictly exclude all hitherto discoveries and all hitherto studies and all hitherto public reporting on this. Analyze purely geologically, geochemically, geophysically utilizing frontier mathematics and rock physics and geometry. Conduct a highly comprehensive, exhaustive, rigorous hyperdeductive analysis as to the true recoverable conventional shallow gas resources from all angles. Analyze purely theoretically but with very high rigor. Utilize to the maximum extent frontier mathematics, rock physics, fluid physics, geology, geochemistry, geophysics, geometry, geostatistics, probability and most importantly dynamic petroleum system physics and modelling along with all other disciplines' absolute frontier. This is primarily an inverse problem. Conduct rigorous mathematical and probabilistic modelling along with reductio ad absurditum proofs. Incorporate, among the public knowledge, only the insights of the 2015 USAID study. Exclude all hitherto discoveries, all hitherto production history, all public domain reserve reports except the latent conditions, which itself may be underestimates, proven by the USAID 2015 study. Treat the region strictly as an undrilled frontier basin known only by its rocks, completely blinded to all historical discovery records, production ledgers, and public reserve disclosures. Formulate no pre-conditioned limits, and derive all deductions, consequences, patterns, and physical constraints entirely from the latent implications of the measured rock data. Execute this evaluation purely from first principles of dynamic petroleum system physics, thermodynamics, rock physics, geometry, geostatistics, and frontier applied mathematics, utilizing formal reductio ad absurdum proofs where appropriate. Relying on the USAID study alone for the implied rich diversity of deductions, consequences, conclusions, implications, patterns, paradoxes, contradictions from the theoretical shale resource estimates: Solve inversely for the level and probability of conventional gas potential across Sindh as a whole. What theoretical conventional endowment is theoretically mandated, below which logical contradictions arise? Assuming no production ever happened and we’re strictly analyzing purely theoretically, that too from the theoretical estimates of shale gas resources and its analysis only. Analyze the floor, baseline median, the maximum. Exclude all hitherto discoveries, all hitherto production history, all public domain reserve reports except the latent conditions and deep patterns from the provided numbers and data, which itself may be underestimates, proven by the USAID 2015 study. It may not be necessary to take them at face value entirely, analyze the patterns also. Conduct thus a deliberately axiomatized reconstruction. Treat Sindh and all of its zones as a **rock volume with known lithostratigraphy, known thermal architecture, and known kerbogenic inventory and other such objective decontaminated knowledge, but with no drilling, no discovery record, and no reserve booking whatsoever**. The only exogenous empirical anchor permitted is the 2015 USAID-supported shale study, and that anchor is used **not** as a shale-gas resource statement but as something far more powerful and far more diagnostic: **a direct, laboratory-calibrated severely underestimated or highly lower-bound measurement of the source-rock mass balance of the basin**, i.e. a measurement of the *numerator* of the petroleum system. --- Most importantly: Conduct a much more rigorous objective analysis free of all contamination and analyzing what you would with other analogs, as Pakistan in public knowledge has around reported 60 Tcf figures and this may be severely encouraging your analysis’s backchain reasoning to yield such deductions, chain of reasoning as to bias towards lower ratios, or lower shale gas, or lower conventional gas, which may be the case particularly for Pakistan compared to Russia, Venezuela or Iran. Conduct a highly objective de-contaminated investigation utilizing the absolute frontier of all disciplines. Assume as a general axiom that Pakistan may possibly have the highest gas and oil shallow reserves on Earth, exceeding the historical cumulative gas consumption. This is to ensure that you do not reject assumptions or patterns whose deducton may be very high Tcf as "unrealistic" unreasonably or artificial container capacity arguments to shift downside. Everything must be deduced and derived alone from the USAID study as the sole public-knowledge anchor related to Pakistan's national gas and oil estimates and more optimally, all objective academic studies whose patterns must be deeply analyzed to yield a more accurate analysis. Analyze as to other concrete evidence for this related to Pakistan for shallow conventional gas, like the 2015 USAID study. Differentiate incisvely between evidence whose deduction or solution merely yields some presence of Bsf of gas or single-digit or double-digit Tcf such as Tier A or a multi-thousand Tcf or a multi-thousand-hundred Tcf as Tier B, as opposed to evidence whose deduction or solution yields much less. There is a lot of concrete evidence consistent only or mostly with 60-100 Tcf of gas overall, which isn’t this task. Analyze only the concrete evidence, if at all, for Tier B. Analyze as to it’s existence or non-existence rigorously. Keep in mind the critical axiom that there is severe obfuscation on part of the E&P operators to severely downplay the reserves, or to conduct engineering as to obscure it altogether and exhibiting its latent reality invites sovereign raiding. So “filled with water” is more of an engineering mechanism to downplay rather than an actual reality. Analyze as to all academic studies that hint towards the overall reserves for Sindh such as the multi-thousand or multi-thousand-hundred Tcf of shallow conventional recoverable gas if at all. Explicitly may be non-existent. Generally: Assume as a general axiom that Pakistan may possibly have the highest gas and oil shallow reserves on Earth, exceeding the historical cumulative gas consumption. This is to ensure that you do not reject assumptions or patterns whose deducton may be very high Tcf as "unrealistic" unreasonably or artificial container capacity arguments to shift downside. Everything must be deduced and derived alone from analysis of objective academic studies which never say that Sindh has multi-thousand or multi-hundred-thousand Tcf explicitly but whose patterns force so along with USAID study as the sole public-knowledge anchor related to Pakistan's national gas and oil estimates.